Long Term Energy Demand & Supply

Summary Results



Prof. Dr. Mustafa Özcan ÜLTANIR


The world average for annual per capita primary energy consumption is 1.5 tons of oil equivalent(toe)/person.annum. The OECD average is 4.6 toe/person.annum, with the European Union figures slightly lower at 3.7 toe/person.annum and Turkey at 1.17 toe /person.annum. Electricity consumption figures are similar. Turkey’s per capita net consumption after leakages and losses amounts to 1382 (gross 1797) kWh/person.annum, far below the global average of 2400 kWh/person.annum.


Turkey’s Present Situation Regarding Energy


Turkey’s primary energy consumption increased 3.9 times during 1970-1998 from 18 849 Ktoe (thousand tons of oil equivalent) to 74 170 Ktoe. Concurrently domestic production of primary energy resources also jumped 2 fold to reach 28784 Ktoe from 14493 Ktoe. Turkey’s recent history exhibits a rapid rise in the demand for natural gas. Table 1 and Table 2 show the progress of domestic supply and consumption of primary energy sources in Turkey.


Table 1. Primary energy production in Turkey (Ktoe).

Year  19801985199019911992199319941995199619971998NaturalGas 2162193185180182182166187230514Lignit& asphaltite39788437964391771038498271047110764109141177212802Biomass  76837749720872127209714871097068704570246983HardCoal 21952190208018271727172216361319138213471143Hydro  9761036199119512285292026303057348134243632Ren andRenewab -5106113122135160190242259326Oil  24472216390346744495408738713692367536303385Total  1729821703251232513826408260212605926255269262768728784

Back in the 1970’s domestic supply used to meet local consumption by 75%. Due to the fact that demand grows twice as fast as local production, only 38% of Turkey’s local demand can be met domestically. By the year 2000, the share of domestic production in meeting local demand for primary energy resources will further slip to 35%. 89% of oil which corresponds to over 40% of the country’s energy consumption and almost the totality of natural gas which makes up 13% of Turkey’s demand for energy are imported today.


Table 2. Primary energy consumption in Turkey (Ktoe).

Year  19801985199019911992199319941995199619971998NaturalGas 2162311038274197463049216313738491659690Lignit&asphaltite421081589888106321082599621033110633112021229312802Biomass  76837749720872127209714871097068704570246983HardCoal 28343839649168446803667164286690911584958921Hydro  9761036199119512285292026303057348134243632Ren andRenewab -5106113122135160190242259326Oil  1307418134239012331524865284122714229324309393051530349Net electric import115184-6322-11-32-46-60-6191258Total  3191339167526325391556298598455867563215694027136774170


The manufacturing industry comprises the largest share in Turkey’s energy consumption with 38.3%. Whereas in primary energy consumption, manufacturing industries, construction and services have an equal share. The increase of manufacturing industries in Turkey have resulted in an apparent interaction between GDP and total energy consumption figures. The continuation of industrialization at this pace is dependent upon an incessant supply of energy which should be provided in the right terms and conditions.


The demand for electricity grew at an average rate of 9.7% annually in Turkey throughout 1970-1999. The rise in annual demand exceeded 5% for 21 years and rose to 10% for 11 years. The annual rate of increase in electricity consumption fell below 5% for 4 years prior to 1990, and for 5 years after 1990 at 2.6% in 1994, 0.5% in 1995, 1.4% in 1996, 0.3% in 1997,1998 in 6.7% and 11% in 1999. The growth in the production of established power plants can be seen in Table 3.


Tablo 3. Türkiye’de termik ve hidrolik elektriksel kurulu gücün gelişimi.

Year 198019851990199119921993199419951996199719981999Total (MW)5118.79119.116315.117206.618713.620335.120857.320951.821246.921889.423351.526292.7Hydro (MW)2130.83874.86794.37113.88378.79681.79864.69862.89934.810102.610306.510734.5Thermal (MW)2987.95244.39550.810092.810334.910653.410992.711089.011312.111786.813036.315549.5Total Production (millionkWh)23275.434218.957543.060246.367342.273807.578321.786247.494861.6103295.8111022.4115600.0Wind (MW)----------8.78.7


The established power generation capacity rose to 26292.7 MW in 1999 from 2234.9 MW in 1970, but still fails to fulfill demand. The private sector holds 5015.8 MW of the present capacity, with 2686.2 MW yielded by private auto-producers. The total power generated in 1999 reached 115600 GWh, imported power energy reached 2400 GWh, while exported energy remained at a mere 200 GWh, with total consumption reaching 117800 GWh.


Turkey’s Energy Resources


Turkey does not possess ample fossil fuel reserves. Excluding lignite; coal, oil and natural gas reserves in Turkey are quite scant and are far from meeting domestic demand. From a long-term perspective, lignite deposits do not seem to be sufficient either. Turkey’s total extractable reserves of coal, oil, natural gas, asphaltite and bitumen amount to 2454 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent). All bitumen, torium and uranium deposits are potential reserves. Coal, lignite, oil, natural gas and uranium deposits must be improved through new exploration works. There are areas where the above-mentioned fossil fuel reserves could be developed.


Contrary to the paucity of Turkey’s conventional fossil fuel reserves, Turkey possesses a potentially rich reserve of inexhaustible natural resources. Turkey accommodates 124.5 TWh/year worth of hydraulic, 1.8 Mtep/year worth of geothermal, 25 Mtep/year worth of solar, 50 TWh/year worth of wind and 32 Mtep/year worth of biomass energy. Hence Turkey must give impetus to the use of renewable energy.


Classical biomass and hydraulic energy are the most frequently used types of renewable resources in Turkey. At the moment, only 30% of the attainable hydraulic energy potential has been utilized, due to reach 38% by the time the power plants under construction begin to operate. The use of geothermal energy is restrictive in spite of its overriding potential. Although advanced technology provides multifarious areas of use, solar energy too is merely utilized. The use of wind energy has started very recently, whereas generating energy from sea waves or the water currents at straits and utilizing the modern biomass energy are not even being considered at all.


Anticipated Developments in the Demand and Production of Energy by the Centennial of the Republic.


The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources has drawn up a production plan based on an estimation of the demand for energy until the year 2020.  The scope of the plan prepared for TUSIAD has been extended to the year 2025, which will mark the centennial of the promulgation of the Republic. Besides the calculations by the Ministry, a separate demand estimation which takes into account the basic indicators and a corresponding production plan has also been made. The findings about demand in relation to Turkey’s growth objectives are shown on Table 4.


The findings of the Ministry suggest that the primary energy demand in Turkey will be equivalent to 91030 Ktoe in the year 2000, and 314353 Ktoe in 2020. In line with this trend, in 2023, which marks the centennial of the Republic, Turkey’s primary energy consumption will reach to 367780 Ktoe and to 407106 Ktoe in 2025. The report drafted for TUSIAD projects Turkey’s primary energy demand for the year 2000 to be equivalent to 90800 Ktoe and 397655 Ktoe for 2025. There is a minor deviation of 2.3% between the two demand curves. It is evident that Turkey’s energy consumption will increase four times between 2000 and 2025.  Turkey must provide sufficient energy supply to meet the ever-increasing demand. In 2023, Turkey will resume her place in the developed world with 4252 kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe)/person of primary energy consumption and per capita GDP of $15047.


Table 4- Primary energy demand in Turkey and basic economic indicators.

YearsTotal primary energydemand (TPES)estimated by the Ministry Total primary energy demand (TPES) estimated by TUSIAD (Ktoe)GDP(current-$billion) Energy intensity projected by the Ministry -TPES/GDP  (Mtoe/$ billion)  Energy intensity projected byTUSIAD-  TPES/GDP (Mtoe/$ billion)Population (thousands)Per capita energy consumption estimated by the Ministry (kgoe/person) Per capita energy consumption estimated by TUSIAD (kgoe/person) Per capita GDP (current $) Per capita GDP (1992 PPP-$)2000 91030   90800   238.11  0.38    0.38   65864 1382   1379   3615 73172010 175074   167457   458.32  0.38    0.37   74677 2344   2242   6137 136002023 367780   359526   1272.27  0.29    0.28   84555 4350   4252   15047 338752005 124748   120905   321.56  0.39    0.38   70271 1775   1721   4576 99752020 314353   307612   994.82  0.32    0.31   82588 3806   3725   12046 273862015 233296   228682   666.85  0.35    0.34   78633 2967   2908   8481 192992025 407106   397655   1499.01  0.27    0.27   85867 4741   4631   17457 38862


According to the Ministry’s production forecasts, domestic production of primary energy will be 31091 Ktoe in 2000 and 79399 Ktoe in 2020. Projections indicate that domestic generation will reach 91408 Ktoe in 2023 and 95946 Ktoe in 2025. The study conducted for TUSIAD envisages a boost in local production of primary energy to 33434 Ktoe in 2000 and 118268 Ktoe in 2025 with the operation of renewable resources. Table 5 displays a comparative view of the findings related to primary energy resources and their domestic production planning.


Table 5- Domestic primary energy production targets of Turkey (Ktoe).

YearsCoal projectionsof the Ministry (H.coal+Lig.Asph.)Coal projectionsof TUSIAD (H.coal+Lig.+Asph.) Oil + nat. gas projectionsof the MinistryOil + nat. gas projectionsof TUSIAD Central heatingHydraulic energy projectionsof the MinistryHydraulic energy projectionsof TUSIADNuclear energy estimated by the Ministry and Choice 1 of TUSIAD Nuclear energy according to Choose 2 TUSIAD Geothermal energy estimationsof the MinistryGeothermal energy estimationsof TUSIADSolar energy estimated by the MinistrySolar energy estimationsof TUSIADWind energy projections of the MinistryWind energy estimationsof TUSIADSea-wave energy forecastsof the MinistrySea-wave energy forecastsof TUSIADClassical biomass estimationsof the Ministry (wood+dry dung)Classical biomass estimationsof TUSIAD(wood+dry dung)Modern biomass projectionsof the MinistryModern biomass estimationsof TUSIAD Total estimated by the Ministry Total estimated by TUSIAD2000 16151  18253 3408 3408 253 3763 3763  0  0 432 432121 2870 58 0 0 6963  6963 0 17 31091 334342005 19066  23452 2127 2127 495 5422 6268  0  0 1380 1380201 7160 263 0 0 7057  6461 0 765 35748 419572010 28226  28819 1314 2155 884 7344 7695  3657  3657 3760 3760355 14580 629 0 10 7158  5734 0 1652 52698 564532015 28580  35059 877 2155 1336 8526 9219  9143  10972 4860 5000501 25140 995 0 25 7268  4789 0 2500 61091 727352020 36601  42169 628 2580 2018 8919 9989  18286  21943 4860 5250706 38820 1519 0 125 7381  3980 0 3515 79399 933132023 38612  46852 430 2580 2427 9278 10726  26988  32386 5400 5400836 48540 1883 0 175 7437  3560 0 4049 91408 1094952025 40752  51136 330 2580 2748 9305 11585  29200  35040 5400 5400932 55640 2167 0 175 7479  3307 0 4406 95946 118268


Production figures proposed by the TUSIAD report are 7.5% to 23.3% higher than those suggested by the Ministry. The plan of the Ministry estimates domestic production to meet demand by 25.3% in 2000 to 2020. According to the local demand and production trends, locally produced energy may only meet 30.9% of the corresponding demand, much lower than 38.1% of the same period. The plan drafted by the Ministry projects 59940 Ktoe and 234953 Ktoe worth of energy imports in the years 2000 and 2020 respectively. Turkey’s energy imports will be in excess of 277 Mtoe by 2023.


Parallel to the forecasts of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkish Power Generation and Transmission Co. (TEAS) estimates that power generation capacity will be 30395 MW to meet a demand of 134307 GWh in 2000 and 108999 MW to meet 547060 GWh worth of demand in 2020. Exponentially, demand in 2023 will climb to 639045 GWh, while the necessary capacity must reach 124235 MW. Per capita electricity consumption will be 1750 kWh in 2000 and 6785 kWh in 2023. Imported natural gas, imported coal and lignite plants have a significant place in projections of TEAS. With due importance of the construction of the above-mentioned power plants, the share of hydraulic and nuclear energy must be expanded and new and renewable resources for power generation must be used.


Hydraulic and Nuclear Energy


On the centenary of the Republic, Turkey must fully benefit from her present hydroelectric potential. For Turkey to be able to mobilize today’s hydroelectric potential in its entirety by the year 2023, established hydroelectric power must amount to 20824 MW in 2005, 25565 MW in 2010, 30628 MW in 2015, 33186 MW in 2020 and 35635 MW in 2023. Hence, Total production will be as high as 124721 GWh by 2023.


Until 2023, Turkey must add a minimum of 1000 MW per year to her current hydraulic projects. From the year 2023 on, projects should be initiated to increase the potential from 35000 MW to 60000 MW, so as to fully utilize the technical potential. Furthermore, pump storing hydroelectric power plants in the form of point plants should be built.


Despite all the disputes, nuclear energy plays an important part in the production of energy in developed and industrialized countries, and it is expected to do so in the future as well. Between 1990 to 1999, nuclear power generation in European, West European, European Union and OECD countries have significantly risen. In the next 25 years, the world’s established nuclear power is expected to grow. At the 17th World Energy Summit held between September 13-18, 1998, the importance of nuclear energy and the need to use it more extensively in the future was highlighted.


Turkey should also accommodate itself to this trend. Nuclear power plants are necessary both in order to meet the primary energy demand and to employ the technology.  Serious studies based on Turkey’s primary resource reserves and potential, the advanced technology in the field of energy and anticipated deficits indicate that nuclear energy should be utilized in order to meet the vast demand for electrical power. The need for nuclear energy is partly due to the fact that they serve as base power plants in the system.


The energy modeling formulated for the report of TUSIAD indicated that nuclear power should be increased to 17700 MW by the year 2023.  If this level can be attained, electric generation from nuclear and hydraulic energy will become equivalent at 124 billion kWh, in 2023. Turkey’s policy regarding nuclear energy should be directed towards attaining a level of nuclear electric generation equivalent to that of hydroelectric generation by 2023.


New and Renewable Energy Resources


In order to alleviate the increasing exports burden in energy and adopt a sustainable approach towards energy and environmental issues, the mobilization of new and renewable resources should be undertaken. Use of geothermal, solar, wind and modern biomass energy should be promoted. The plan drafted by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, however, does not attach the due importance to these alternative resources. Introducing new and renewable resources along with advanced technology will provide new fields of employment, subsequently easing unemployment and increasing national income. Still, new and renewable energy resources should not be regarded as an alternative to nuclear energy.


Geothermal energy is especially important for heating purposes in Turkey. Heating capacity in Turkey runs at 350 MWt, equivalent to 50 000 households.  These numbers can be increased some seven-fold, to 2250 MWt equal to 350 000 households through a proven and exhaustible potential. Turkey must target 1 200 000 households equivalent of 7500 MWt. Geothermal central heating, which is less costly than natural gas could be feasible for many regions. In spite of the fact that Turkey’s potential for geothermal electricity is viewed to be sparse, there are resources that are yet to be exploited. Geothermal power plants must be built and begin to operate in the nearest future. The potential for geothermal electricity could be further bolstered by the use of low enthalpy fluids.


Solar energy constitutes Turkey’s most resplendent source of energy.  The use of heat applications and solar energy in production could reach an equivalent of 121 Ktoe in 2000 and 745 Ktoe in 2020 according to the projections of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Furthermore, the use of advanced technology, non-water passive and active heating methods and solar energy in manufacturing processes could result in 287 Ktoe in 2000, 1458 Ktoe in 2010, 3882 Ktoe in 2020 and 4854 Ktoe in 2023. Turkey’s agenda for the upcoming decade must also incorporate solar-natural gas hybrid thermal power plants.


In recent years, the world has witnessed a significant growth in the capacities of wind plants. No doubt, Turkey, too was susceptible to the changes having submitted 64 applications for wind energy plants with a minimum capacity of 2285 MW. However, neither the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources nor TEAS (Turkish Power Generation and Transmission Co.) have included wind energy in their plans. Estimations and future models show that the established capacities of wind energy plants could reach 300 MW in 2000 and reach as high as 2979 MW in 2010, 7849 MW in 2020 and 9733 MW in 2023. Electricity produced from wind will be 675 GWh in 2000 and 21900 GWh in 2023. The total share of wind energy in the generation of electricity will increase to 3.5% from 0.5%.


Biomass energy in the form of animal and plant fossils also comprise a substantial share in Turkey’s energy supply, although not commercially viable. According to the findings of 1997, classical biomass constitutes 25.5% of total primary energy production. Classical biomass must be gradually replaced by modern biomass energy.  The share of modern biomass which yields high quality fuels derived from wood, agriculture and wastes will overtake solar and wind energies.


Classical biomass will deliver 6963 Ktoe in 2000 and 7381 Ktoe in 2020, according to the estimations of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. It is likely that the contribution of classical biomass will be reduced to 3980 Ktoe in 2020, to be compensated by an accelerated transition to modern biomass from 17 Ktoe in 2000 to 3515 Ktoe in 2020 and 4049 Ktoe by 2023.


Turkey, an Energy Terminal


Turkey resides in juxtaposition to rich oil and natural gas producing countries, in vicinity to high energy consuming countries of the West, abridging Asia and Europe. As it had been with the historical Silk Road, energy routes could flow via Turkey today. Turkey obviously has great interests vested in the likelihood of becoming an energy terminal or hub connecting the two continents. International oil pipelines and natural gas routes play a central role in Turkey’s policies regarding energy, the economy and foreign affairs. Oil and natural gas pipelines have become a national policy for Turkey, which has been striving to harbor these points of connection. Apart from oil and gas routes, power connections via the neighboring countries could help interconnect Europe, Middle East and the Caucuses.


Turkey presently avails from the Crude Oil Pipeline from Iraq and the Natural Gas Pipeline stretching from the Russian Federation to Europe via Turkey. The pipeline carrying crude oil from Iraq has an alternate operation enabling Turkey to import fuel and also function as a terminal for Iraqi exports to other destinations. The natural gas pipeline from the Russian Federation stretching into Europe, was laid for Turkey’s gas imports. Unfortunately, the Russian gas imported through the pipeline is inadequate to meet Turkey’s ever growing demand. There are plans to boost the pipeline capacity, as well as LNG imports which are already underway.


The so-called Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline whose itinerary covers the Caspian and the Mediterranean seas will carry 11.5 million tons/year at the outset and will reach 45 million tons of capacity in six years. Although both political and economic challenges continue to stifle the construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, the Turkish state will give utmost importance to the issue, making it a mandatory achievement.


There are a number of projects assuring a continuous supply of natural gas to and via Turkey to the European countries; namely the Russian Federation-Black Sea-Turkey (Blue Stream) Natural Gas Pipeline Project, Turkmenistan-Turkey-Europe Natural Gas Pipeline Project, Iran-Turkey Natural Gas Pipeline Project, Iraq-Turkey Natural Gas Pipeline Project. Trans-Balkans Natural Gas Pipeline Project and Egypt-Turkey-Mediterranean Natural Gas Pipeline Project.


Today, Turkey and the Russian Federation are parties to a natural gas agreement, providing Turkey with natural gas and the means to import LNG in addition to the Iran Agreement and the Russian Blue Stream. Nevertheless, the current sources of supply do not meet Turkey’s demand. Turkey’s natural gas shortage is expected to run at 3602 million m3 in 2000, 7581 million m3 in 2005, 1238 million m3 in 2010, 7301 million m3 in 2015 and 22619 million m3 in 2020.


Rational Use, Efficiency and Savings


Studies conducted in different industries in Turkey reveal that savings can be made in total energy consumption. Manufacturing industries could save up to 5.3 annually, while domestic consumption and services could be reduced by 5.1 Mtoe/year. Transportation, an area which consumes energy intensely, could also optimize energy use and save 2.8 Mtoe per year. Energy saving measures could yield some 13.2 Mtoe annually, corresponding to $2.6 billion in monetary terms. Additional savings could be achieved in the areas of energy conversion sector with 3.5 Mtoe and agriculture which could cut back waste by 0.4 Mtoe annually. Overall Turkey’s energy loss amounts to 63.1% in input and 84.5% in final energy compared to the estimated productivity levels of 36.9% and 15.5%.


Turkey’s drive toward savings in energy consumption lack a sound scientific and technological groundwork. Efforts are appallingly negligent and merely pay lip service to aspirations. Figures reveal that Turkey could reduce its current energy consumption as far as 18%. Efficiency could be driven by technological measures based on incentives, rather than lowering demand through price-oriented maneuvers, which will underscore abundant and economically priced energy.


Energy and the Environment


Although mankind continues to affect nature in all his doings, energy is perhaps one of the most important areas of concern today. There are no pollutant types of energy, what makes it a contaminant is the technology used in production. Today clean practices have become a byword in production as environmental policies are intertwined with industrial ecology. Environmental action plans are designed on the basis of sustainability features, making energy one of the most prioritized industries to be sought after.


Today the most serious ecological issue inflicting the world is that of global warming. Global warming is a by-product of the excessive use of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel emissions contain greenhouse gases such as carbon-dioxide which perpetuate a process of global warming that could lead to climactic changes in the atmosphere. Ways to curb global warming must be sought in nuclear and alternative new and renewable sources of energy. Needless to say, all forms of energy technologies necessitate measures to protect the environment. Remedial measures that could help stave off environmental hazards must be strictly applied.


Energy and the environment must not be viewed as conflicting areas of concern. Today the transportation industry generates much higher levels of air pollution compared to the obvious culprit; the energy plants. Energy and the environment must be in congruity let alone face clashes. Unfortunately, in Turkey, the environmental effects of thermal energy plants operating on fossil fuels reveal the bitter reality that most energy plants are in too much of a vicinity to one another, that they are in one another’s territory, located in zones of high agricultural of touristic potential, indifferent to anti-pollutant measures and that they embody major design mishaps. Although further investments with a view to compensating the shortfalls are already underway, measures must be taken at the design and project phases for efficient results.


Authorities must make the effort to make use of scrupulous, non-hazardous, environmentally friendly, productive and equally cost-effective technologies in mining raw materials, primary and secondary phases of production, transportation, storage, transmission and consumption of energies so as to safe guard the ecological balance. The environmental impacts of power plants must be viewed in advance, no later than the project phase. An optimum equilibrium must be continuously maintained between energy, economics and ecology.


Environmental and health related risk exposures are valid for all energy types. Nevertheless, such risks or environmental effects can be mitigated through the use of advanced science and technological tools. Human beings de facto employ controllable forms of energy. Measures that resolve environmental controversies must employ state of the art technology and not prohibit the construction or operation of any power plant.




toe  = tone of oil equivalent = 10 500 kcal = GJ

kgoe  = kilogram of oil equivalent

Ktoe = thousand tons of oil equivalent

Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent

TPES = Total Primary Energy Demand (Supply or Consumption)

GDP  = Gross Domestic Product

MW = megawatt = 1000 kW

kWh = kilowatt-hour = 3.6 MJ

GWh = gigawatt-hour = millions kWh

TWh = terawatt-hour = billions kWh




* This article summarized from Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (TUSIAD) Executive Summary Report, which is An Overview of Turkey’s Energy Strategy on the Eve of the 21st Century, prepared by Prof. Ph.D. Mustafa Ozcan ULTANIR


Kasim 29 2016 Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın Haklı İstemi